Natty Bros NFL Pick'em: Week 1

Each week, the Natty Bros will be doing picks of all the NFL games and will publish them on the blog, with a season record to be tallied each week. Enjoy.

Cowboys vs. Giants
Matt: Giants
Tyler: Giants
Vince: Giants
(And we all started the season 0-1, as did all of the ESPN "experts")

Colts vs. Bears
Matt: Bears
Tyler: Bears
Vince: Bears

Eagles vs. Browns
Matt: Eagles
Tyler: Eagles
Vince: Eagles

Patriots vs. Titans
Matt: Patriots
Tyler: Patriots
Vince: Patriots

I've waited 14 Years For... This?

Did Mark Reynolds add some late-season fuel to keep the Orioles' fire burning in September?  (Photo credit: Baltimore Sun, 8/17)

 

 

I remember 2002 very fondly. I remember watching Travis Driskill get his major league callup. I remember Tony Batista launching bombs with his quirky stance. But most of all, I remember 4-32. Mike Hargrove managing and steering a ship with no rudder. The team miraciously was 63-63 before the collapse(!). That right there should have garnered Grover some MOY votes, the team was awful. Worse, way worse, than this current team trotted out everynight by Buck Showalter.


Let's flash forward to the present. I still sense the apprehension, the genuine doubt fans have in this Orioles team. I feel it too, don't get me wrong, much has been made of lately that the Orioles run differential is a paltry negative 46, in the same company as the 52-66 Kansas City Royals and the 54-65 Philadelphia Phillies. The adjusted W/L total for the Orioles accounting for their run differential? 55-64, according to baseballreference.com's Pythagorean formula.


Unfortunately, there's no formula for analyzing the atmposphere at the ballpark. I was at the game last Tuesday when Mark Reynolds hit two home runs and the Red Sox were roughed up pretty darn good. The last time I was at a Red Sox/Orioles game at OPACY? "LET'S GO RED SOX" chants and constant screams of joy each time a BoSock reached base, recorded an out and of course, when they eventually won. This time, there was very little of that. The crowd was a decent 26k draw, but what got my attention was the overwhelmingly pro-Orioles theme that reviberated around the stadium. Fans on their feet screaming for Reynolds when he did his Sosa-esque home run jump, oohing and ahhing at Manny Machado making plays at third base that Brooksie would nod his head in approval at. I left that game with a legitimate sense that things are turning around in Baltimore. What could be a better barometer than a Red Sox game in mid August?


This all brings me back to the genesis of this piece. What proof do Orioles fans have that this run will continue into Sepetmber when it matters most? When they win it's by the narrowest of margins, 40 of their 64 wins have come by one or two runs. Yes, their bullpen has a 3.01 ERA, 3rd best in the AL. Their starters though? 9th in the AL with a 4.68 ERA. The inconsistencies of the "calvary" include the likes of Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta - both relegated to AAA. Zach Britton has battled a shoulder injury and has been largely ineffective in his 2012 season between Norfolk and Baltimore. Chris Tillman has been the brightest spot but even he has had a few rough patches in his big league stint thus far.  The hitting is an enigma in every sense of the word. JJ Hardy has had multiple stretches of downright stink (.200 OBP in June(!!)). Mark Reynolds has been stinky all year, to be polite. Including this recent stretch of hot play his average again remains teetering just above the Mendoza line, but the problem truly lies with the 12 home runs.


So maybe there is no hope for the Birds and the last month and a half will be a screeching regression to the mean. Maybe the starting pitching will completely collapse, Jason Hammel's knee stays balky and the bullpen's run ends because of the grueling season length. 4-32 happened once, I suppose it could happen again.


Or this could happen. Hardy progresses to the mean for his average on balls hit in play. Remember what I just said about his awful stretches this season? June and July he hit .193 and .184 respectfully. His batting average on balls in play those two months? Almost identical, .208 and .207. For his career? .274. And for Reynolds, there is a proven track record with his power production. He has hit below 20 HRs once in a major league season, his rookie year when he played 111 games. There can be any number of factors as to why his season has been a disappointment, but in his career it's worth noting the month that he has hit the most home runs -- August.

Taking a step back and looking at this season is a real treat to Orioles and baseball fans alike. This is a cinderella story, not in the sense of March Madness where a team can catch fire for a few games. The Orioles have battled through peaks and valleys, injuries and ineffectiveness. No different than any other team really (well maybe different than the Astros, who really never "peaked, but I digress). The difference between this team and the previous 14 Orioles teams is hard to pinpoint. 2004 and 2005 had some talent but also some serious clubhouse issues. Maybe this team is succeeding because there are no cancers in the clubhouse as Reynolds said a few days ago. Maybe Buck really does know what he is doing, pressing the right buttons like keeping Hardy batting in the two hole despite his subpar season. Maybe Dan Duquette isn't the bumbling baffoon many made him out to be when he was hired after the Orioles were spurned by just about everyone else they reached out to.

There's no rational explanation as to why the Orioles are where they are, which is smack dab in the middle of the playoff race and in possession of a wildcard spot. With leaders on the team like Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters the team has a young and hungry core. Reynolds' passionate outburst and subsequent comments about the umpiring last night in Detroit may be the best indicator any of us have as to why this team is winning. They haven't mailed it in. They never did. Somehow, when pundits across the nation predicted 58-70 wins for the Orioles, the players didn't listen. Neither did Duquette, who declared 'We are going to do whatever we can to make the playoffs' --back in June!

That's fine though by me. There doesn't have to be a statistic to back up every win. Yes it's fun to analyze and measure every tangible attribute related to the team, but at the end of the day the Orioles are winning because of the intangibles. And those can't, no matter how hard you try, be measured. Sit back, enjoy the ride, go out to the ballpark and watch the Orioles continue their run. You've waited 14 years for this.

The MLB Realignment Plan: Saving the Future of Baseball

Is geographical realignment in Major League Baseball's future? It would only help the game

In this post, I want to take a look at the possibility of division realignment in Major League Baseball. The MLB, similar to the NFL and unlike the NBA and NHL, is based on the traditions of the American and National Leagues, where geography is not the basis for each of the leagues. The NBA and NHL split their leagues into two "eastern" and "western" conferences, with divisions grouping the nearest geographic rivals. MLB's divisions do create geographic rivals, but most teams are not in the same division as their nearest physical rival (i.e. Mets-Yankees, Dodgers-Angels, Cubs-White Sox, Orioles-Nationals, etc.) Sure, regional rivalries against the Yankees and Red Sox exist for the Orioles, but wouldn't playing teams from Washington, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with regularity be even better? In a league that struggles to fill its stadiums to capacity (outside of the major population areas of New York, Boston, Philadelphia and occasionally a few others), nightly attendance could increase across the league if the Orioles are playing more Tuesday night games against the Nationals rather than the Oakland Athletics.

Next season, the Houston Astros will be moving to the American League West, which will cause a chain of events. Each division will now have 5 teams, and the American and National Leagues will each have 15 teams. This means that interleague play will occur every day of the season, amplifying the DH vs. no-DH rules of both leagues. My thoughts are, why stop there? Now baseball traditionalists (and trust me, I'm usually one of them) will hate the idea of scrapping the traditions of the American and National Leagues and starting from scratch, but if baseball wants to continue to draw fans to its stadiums and maintain interest throughout the season, my proposal would help accomplish that goal:

Introducing Courtney Upshaw

                First off both Tyler and Matt in their draft prediction mentioned the chance of the Ravens trading back out of the first round. That is exactly what the Ravens did with their 29^th pick in this past weekend’s NFL Draft. The Ravens traded the pick to the Minnesota Vikings in return they received the 35^th pick and the 98^th pick. With the pick from the Ravens the Vikings selected Harrison Smith a Safety from Notre Dame.

                Watching the draft there was a sense that this was going to happen. Don’ta Hightower was taken by the Patriots at 25 a pick that all three of us here thought the Ravens wanted to make. Overall I am a fan of this as the Ravens were able to trade back 6 picks and get the guy who they most likely would have drafted at 29 anyways in Courtney Upshaw. With the other pick they received from the Vikings they took Gino Gradkowski a Center/Guard from Delaware. Gradkowski has the potential to be the Ravens Center of the future or at the very least provides some young and depth to the offensive line which is always a good thing.

Upshaw should fit right into the Ravens defense.

More following the jump.

You should try this...

Currently at Camden Yards awaiting the first pitch of A's-O's and decided to get the new crab mac and cheese hot dog. An amazing investment. Arrieta on the mound tonight, let's go O's!

Ravens Draft Preview: 1st Round Targets

With the first round of the draft being this coming Thursday its time to look at who the Ravens may select with the 29^th selection in the first round. I have looked through all of the mock drafts that I could find and these are the names that the experts have said the Ravens may pick.

Image from Wikipedia.

More after the break.

Breaking Down the Ravens 2012 Schedule

So as you have probably heard by now, the NFL schedule for 2012 was released Tuesday, as a part of a three hour TV special extravaganza on the Mothership. Usually by the third week of baseball season, Ravens fans are already dying for something to talk about as the Orioles are 2-15 and mathematically out of playoff contention. But with the Orioles in first place, this news about the Ravens is a nice little reminder that we have another exciting football season coming up this fall.

We knew the schedule would be tough after finishing in first place last year (and getting matched up with the AFC's other first place teams this year), as well as divisional matchups against the vaunted NFC East and a challening AFC West. So I'm going to break down the schedule game-by-game and give you a predicion of how I think the Ravens will finish up, and Matt and Vince will also chime in with their predictions.

Check out our game-by-game picks after the jump:

Mychal Parker to Transfer.

Mychal Parker has announced his intent to transfer from the University of Maryland. While this may not seem like a very big deal with JakeLayman coming in next year as well as Nick Faust currently on the roster it does have some implications. From the sounds of his statement it sounds like Turgeon may have encouraged him to do this.

Parker entered College Park as the prize of the 2010 class,
but never put it all together as a Terp.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

In terms of recruiting this opens up a much coveted scholarship for the team. Before this Maryland had one scholarship remaining for this next season and only one available scholarship for the 2013 class. Now even if Turgeon brings in another recruit this year, which seems possible, he would still have 2 available for 2013 which of course is the Harrison twins class.

At this point I would expect either Sam Cassell Jr, who sorta committed a few weeks ago or Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz to be that final recruit brought in for next year. Both of these players have many positives to them. Cassell has a lot of upside as well as furthering the Baltimore-Maryland connection for recruits. However he would be the sixth recruit in an already crowded 2012 recruiting class.

Smotrycz would have to sit out next season most likely and would not become eligible until 2013 when he would be a junior. This would mean he would be the third recruit to the Alex Len and Nick Faust class. Personally I am a little bit more in favor of this. Smotrycz is a known quality. He has produced at Michigan and has a lot of potential. He is a PF who can also shoot the outside shot and get rebounds. Much different than the other big man Turgeon already has brought in. Also it would even out the scholarship situation at Maryland so we don’t have one scholarship to give one year and seven the next which means lots of turnover. He is scheduled to visit this upcoming Friday.

Who knows who if anyone else will join Maryland before the next season? All we know now is that Mychal Parker will not be on the team next year. This had been rumored for a while but having it confirmed opens up the rumor mill for Maryland basketball. My guess would be either Cassell or Smotrycz to be on campus next year but maybe Turgeon will save the scholarship for 2013 and have a three man class or bring in someone else for next year. 

2012 MLB Predictions

Baseball is back, boys and girls. And how sweet it is. There is no greater feeling than Opening Day, when each team starts the season with new found hope for greater glory. With the first game being played in the United States tonight, I thought it was time to release my predictions for this year. Enjoy.

Look for the Rays to be jumping for joy again this September

AL East

MVP: 3B Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay

Cy Young: SP James Shields, Tampa Bay

Rookie: SP Matt Moore, Tampa Bay

1. Tampa Bay Rays

The pitching staff one through five is as deep and talented as any in baseball, and will carry the Rays to the playoffs yet again

Key to success: Offensive players other than Longoria picking up the slack

2. New York Yankees (Wild Card)

Concerns about the back-end of the rotation and an aging offensive core make a fall-off likely, but there is too much talent to not give a Rays a run for their money

Key to success: Alex Rodriguez bouncing back from his first injury-riddled season and returning to old form.

3. Boston Red Sox

After missing the playoffs in game 162 in 2011, they will again be sitting at home in 2012. The health of Clay Buchholz and new closer Andrew Bailey, as well as the inexperience of Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard in the rotation could cause problems. Lineup should be strong as usual, but there are question marks

Key to success: Development of Doubront and Bard, as well as the revival of Carl Crawford

4. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays have won 80+ games in 12 of the past 15 seasons, yet have failed to win 90+ or make the playoffs once in that time. Could they get over the hump? Sure, but they are still a legit ace or two away from truly challenging the big 3.

Key to success: The back end of the rotation and the development of stud prospect Brett Lawrie at 3B

5. Baltimore Orioles

Here we go again. Too many holes in the rotation and the lack of a true leadoff or cleanup hitter make the hill too big to climb for the O’s, yet again. Hey at least they’ll get a top 5 draft pick, right?

Key to success: “The Cavalry” – aka Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton and their development. This is essentially a make or break year for all of them

One down three to go

Today the Maryland Terrapins extended their basketball season by at least one by defeating the Wake Forest Demon Deacons 82-60 in the first round of the ACC Tournament. With the Terps squarely on the bubble of the NIT, tomorrow's game against UNC is vital for the Terps to wrap up a spot in the NIT.

In terms of the big dance it is going to take a conference title to get the Terps in. With Maryland's record standing at 17-14 (6-10 ACC), it is going to take at least one more victory to secure the Terps spot in the NIT. Plus, if they can knock the top ranked North Carolina Tar Heels, then the road to the conference title game will get much easier. Maryland is capable of making a run; however, it might be unprobable. They made an unlikely run in 2004 when they ended the season at 20-12 (7-9 ACC) and were very much a bubble team before making their ACC Tournament run. If the team plays like they did today, then they may be able to channel their inner John Gilchrist, Nik Caner-Medley and Chris McCray.

Big American Victory

Today was a historic day for the U.S. national team. The USMNT beat Italy for their first win against the  Azzurri in 11 tries. The one-nil win was also one that should propel the team under Jurgen Klinsmann. In a game that Landon Donovan had to back out of due to illness, Clint Dempsey wore the number 10 jersey instead and provided the deciding goal. The goal was set up by a beautiful settle pass by forward Jozy Altidore who played alone up front. Overall it seemed like outside of a few chances and build ups by the Americans it seemed to me like especially in the closing moments Italy was the one with the better scoring chances.Other players who caught my eye with their play included Tim Howard, Michael Bradley, John Spector and Danny Williams who just may be the long term answer for the U.S. at left back.

US soccer is something that over the past three years I have become more and more a fan of.  I attended my first game the summer of 2009 at RFK with USA playing Hondorus in the Gold Cup and pulling out a 2-0 win. Santino Quaranta and Brian Ching provided the goals on that day. Of that U.S. quad that first drew me in only two players, Clarence Goodson and Steve Cherundolo, remain. Hopefully with international friendlies over the summer as well as the beginning of world cup qualifying for the U.S. around the corner I will begin to provide some more soccer website for the guys here at O's Bros and Natty Bohs. For now enjoy the following video of Clint Dempey's deciding goal today as well as Lionel Messi's hat trick from earlier today against Switzerland. Sorry ahead of time for the music in the Messi clip.

The Wonderful, Wacky World That is The 2012 Orioles Bullpen

It seems year in and year out the Orioles throw a bunch of arms in the bullpen and hope someone sticks. Whether it's been big contracts to Danys Baez and Kevin Gregg, or previously successful pitchers like Mike DeJean and Steve Kline, a lack of homegrown talent has been fairly consistent in the O's pen. Up and coming power arm David Hernandez was traded last year for Mark Reynolds (a move I ironically approved of), and Jason Berken has struggled (more on that later). With the addition of myriad veteran relievers and journeymen, Dan Duquette has assembled what might end up being the most deadly arsenal in Triple A history.

Is Jim Johnson the Orioles closer entering 2012?
Taken from http://flavadave10mlb.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/jim-johnson.jpg

But that's beside the point. Last year's revolving carousel of bullpen arms for the Baltimore Orioles posted a 4.18 ERA a season ago, good for 27th in the majors and second to only Minnesota for the AL's worst.

They traded their best arm, RHP Koji Uehara, midseason for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter from the Texas Rangers. Some relievers performed well in small stints, LHP Zach Phillips, RHP Pedro Strop, and even much maligned LHP Mike Gonzalez strung together a few quality outings before being traded to Texas for Strop. The ace of the bullpen last year without question was homegrown RHP Jim Johnson, who pitched to a 2.67 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Kevin Gregg was removed from the closer's role after a fairly miserable stint. He tied his career high with 40 walks and had seven blown saves before Johnson took over. (Remember after all Buck doesn't care about the save rule, he likes the win rule a little better).

So, with all 2011 behind us and a new front office regime in place the 2012 Orioles bullpen will be notably different looking. Here's a quick rundown of all the arms in camp for the O's so you can see what we're dealing with. Of course, feel free to comment with your thoughts and opinions. I'll include every pitcher simply because there's a chance someone ends up being the 6th starter and is stashed in the bullpen/Buck's doghouse. I'm not including Dylan Bundy in the conversation for obvious reasons, his time will come.