Baseball is back, boys and girls. And how sweet it is. There is no greater feeling than Opening Day, when each team starts the season with new found hope for greater glory. With the first game being played in the United States tonight, I thought it was time to release my predictions for this year. Enjoy.
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| Look for the Rays to be jumping for joy again this September |
AL East
MVP: 3B Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
Cy Young: SP James Shields, Tampa Bay
Rookie: SP Matt Moore, Tampa Bay
1. Tampa Bay Rays
The pitching staff one through five is as deep and talented as any in baseball, and will carry the Rays to the playoffs yet again
Key to success: Offensive players other than Longoria picking up the slack
2. New York Yankees (Wild Card)
Concerns about the back-end of the rotation and an aging offensive core make a fall-off likely, but there is too much talent to not give a Rays a run for their money
Key to success: Alex Rodriguez bouncing back from his first injury-riddled season and returning to old form.
3. Boston Red Sox
After missing the playoffs in game 162 in 2011, they will again be sitting at home in 2012. The health of Clay Buchholz and new closer Andrew Bailey, as well as the inexperience of Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard in the rotation could cause problems. Lineup should be strong as usual, but there are question marks
Key to success: Development of Doubront and Bard, as well as the revival of Carl Crawford
4. Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays have won 80+ games in 12 of the past 15 seasons, yet have failed to win 90+ or make the playoffs once in that time. Could they get over the hump? Sure, but they are still a legit ace or two away from truly challenging the big 3.
Key to success: The back end of the rotation and the development of stud prospect Brett Lawrie at 3B
5. Baltimore Orioles
Here we go again. Too many holes in the rotation and the lack of a true leadoff or cleanup hitter make the hill too big to climb for the O’s, yet again. Hey at least they’ll get a top 5 draft pick, right?
Key to success: “The Cavalry” – aka Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton and their development. This is essentially a make or break year for all of them
AL Central
MVP: 1B Prince Fielder, Detroit
Cy Young: SP Justin Verlander, Detroit (really, like I’d pick someone else?)
Rookie: SP Chris Sale, Chicago (not sure if he is technically still a rookie, but will be VERY good)
1. Detroit Tigers
With the addition of Prince Fielder, they are again the runaway favorites in the Central. A powerful lineup with a strong top-end of the rotation carries a team that should win well over 90 games
Key to success: Injuries. If everyone stays healthy, the Central is the Tigers for the taking.
2. Kansas City Royals
A crazy talented young lineup will make this team exciting to watch, but their young pitching prospects have yet to arrive, meaning they are still a year or two away from really making some noise
Key to success: As with most young teams: starting pitching. A rotation currently headlined by former Oriole Bruce Chen causes major concern in KC.
3. Chicago White Sox
In a tough call over the Indians, I think their experience and strong, stable rotation carries them over the less proven Indians. They do not have the elite offense they had about five years ago, but they can still score some runs.
Key to success: Luck. They have some talent, but not enough to take over the Tigers. They will need breakout performances from players such as Chris Sale and 3B Brent Morel to move up the standings.
4. Cleveland Indians
A 2011 surprise team, fans in Cleveland started coming back to the park to see and exciting team. An aging Travis Hafner and an inconsistent Shin Soo Choo highlight the question marks on offense.
Key to success: Ubaldo Jimenez. The Indians mortgaged part of their future to acquire the power-throwing righty, and he pitched to a 5+ ERA with the team last year. If he pitches like its 2010, this team could be much better.
5. Minnesota Twins
How the mighty have fallen. They have lost longtime staples Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer, and the health of former MVPs Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau remains a big question mark. There are also major questions at the back of the rotation behind Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano.
Key to success: Mauer and Morneau. If they are healthy, this offense instantly becomes scary in the middle
AL West
MVP: 1B Albert Pujols, Los Angeles
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Seattle
Rookie: C/DH Jesus Montero, Seattle/OF Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Wow. Who knew adding two players in free agency would make a team the popular World Series pick? But I guess adding arguably the greatest right handed hitter of all time in Pujols, as well as a dominant lefty in CJ Wilson will do that. An already strong lineup got much better, and the rotation is as strong and deep as Tampa Bay and Philadelphia’s. Look out.
Key to success: The offense surrounding Pujols. He should make others better, but how they adjust to him in the lineup will be the major key to success
2. Texas Rangers (Wild Card)
The defending two-time AL champs were one strike away from a World Series title last year, and may be as hungry as ever. Losing CJ Wilson to the Angels hurts, but the addition of Yu Darvish and the always dangerous lineup makes this team a clear pick to once again make it to October
Key to success: The transition of Japanese stud SP Darvish to the majors
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| Josh Hamilton and the Rangers will come up empty-handed again, this time at the hands of the Angels |
3. Oakland Athletics
Talk about a drop off. For as close the Angels and Rangers are, the A’s and Mariners are equally as bad. The A’s traded away aces Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill and will once again have trouble scoring enough runs to win many games
Key to success: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes comes with a lot of hype, but will he be able to produce?
4. Seattle Mariners
What an embarrassing offense. Felix Hernandez should be winning 20 games every year, but instead he meddles around .500 because of no run support. Aside from Hernandez and Ichiro, the team lacks any real stars or impact players
Key to success: If a nuclear bomb exploded over an Angels-Rangers game, the Mariners may have a chance to make the playoffs. Basically, let’s look to 2013 already.
American League Winners and Awards
ALCS: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim over Detroit Tigers
AL MVP: 1B Albert Pujols, Los Angeles
AL Cy Young: SP Justin Verlander, Detroit
AL Rookie of the Year: SP Matt Moore, Tampa Bay
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| Beware, Harper-mania is upon us |
NL East
MVP: 3B Ryan Zimmerman, Washington
Cy Young: SP Roy Halladay, Philadelphia/SP Stephen Strasburg, Washington
Rookie: OF Bryce Harper, Washington
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Until proven otherwise, they are the East’s elite. Five straight division titles will do that. But injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, as well as the decline of Jimmy Rollins are hard to ignore. The rotation will still carry this team, so expect a lot of 3-2 games at Citizens Bank this year.
Key to success: The health of Howard, Utley and Rollins. These three produce, the Phillies will be back in the playoffs easily.
2. Miami Marlins (Wild Card)
The Marlins open a new stadium with much buzz, having spent big money on Jose Reyes, Mark Buerhle, and Heath Bell. Combined with current studs Hanley Ramirez, Mike (Giancarlo?) Stanton, and SP Josh Johnson, this team has plenty of talent. This team very well may end up battling Philly for eastern supremacy in September.
Key to success: The health of SP Josh Johnson. When healthy, he is a top 5 pitcher in the game. But that is a BIG “if.”
3. Washington Nationals
I think the Nationals are on the cusp of something special. Part of me wants to pick them to make the playoffs with the addition of the second wild card, but I think they will fall just short. A young rotation of Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and newly acquired Gio Gonzalez give this team hope. They could use one more elite hitter surrounding Ryan Zimmerman in the lineup to really be a threat.
Key to success: OF Jayson Werth. He needs to start showing that he was worth $120 million, like right now.
4. Atlanta Braves
I’m predicting a fall for the Braves. Last year’s final game collapse will carry over to a team that will struggle to find its offensive identity. Also, the aging Tim Hudson and instability of Jair Jurrjens also bring questions to a rotation that includes young studs Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy. Frankly, I could see any order of the Nationals, Phillies, Marlins and Braves in spots 1-4 at the end of the season. This will be fun to watch.
Key to success: Jason Heyward. The young phenom seemingly took a step back last year. If he can cut down on strikeouts and improve his power numbers, look out.
5. New York Mets
I’m not even going to waste my time. They are going to be bad. Like worse than the Orioles bad.
Key to success: Johan Santana. If the 2-time AL Cy Young winner can return to form after missing 2011, maybe they can avoid 100 losses.
NL Central
MVP: 1B Joey Votto, Cincinnati
Cy Young: SP Zach Greinke, Milwaukee
Rookie: C Devin Mesoraco, Cincinnati
1. Milwaukee Brewers
The 2011 NL Central champs look to repeat despite losing Prince Fielder to the Tigers. Despite the loss, they picked up Aramis Ramirez and can still rely on the 1-2 punch of Yovani Gallardo and Zach Greinke in the rotation to carry this team. The 50-game suspension and then repeal of the suspension for MVP Ryan Braun makes the difference for this team
Key to success: 2B Rickie Weeks. Coming off a season ending injury, he showed great promise-pre injury. If his power numbers can go up, he could help carry this team offensively with 2011 NL MVP Ryan Braun.
2. Cincinnati Reds
After a surprising playoff run in 2010 but missing out in 2011, the Reds should find themselves back in the hunt for October in 2012. Led by 1B Joey Votto and his $225 million extension on offense, they may have the most balanced attack in the Central. Their pitching staff is consistently overlooked, but the addition of Mat Latos will make this one of the NL’s best.
Key to success: Latos. The former Padre righty has shown flashes of brilliance in his young career. If he can become the ace he is capable of, the Reds will have a chance of going far
3. St. Louis Cardinals
The 2011 World Series champs will have a tough time repeating. Losing Albert Pujols, the uncertainty of Chris Carpenter’s health, and the return of Adam Wainwright from injury give this team a big red flag. They still have Matt Holliday anchoring the lineup, but Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman are heading past their primes
Key to success: Wainwright and Carpenter. Both come with big injury question marks, but if healthy, they can help offset the loss of Pujols in the lineup
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
They made some noise and flirted with .500 through much of the summer before reverting to traditional Pirate form. The additions of Erik Bedard and possibly AJ Burnett (if healthy) to the rotation give some veteran stability that hasn’t been seen since Kris Benson donned a Pirates cap.
Key to success: Pedro Alvarez. The former 1st round pick and highly touted prospect has struggled with high strikeout totals and weight issues in the majors. If he can find his stroke from college, he would form a lethal lefty-righty combo with star Andrew McCutchen.
5. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are a few years away from competing again in the Central. Theo Epstein was brought in to make some drastic changes, but don’t be looking for any miracles at Wrigley this year
Key to success: Starlin Castro. The young shortstop phenom needs to show more maturity to continue to advance his gifted skill set
6. Houston Astros
They very well could be the worst team in baseball again, and it isn’t even close. This team is a long ways away from competing again
Key to success: Making the right selection No. 1 overall in next June’s amateur draft
NL West
MVP: OF Justin Upton, Arizona
Cy Young: SP Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles
Rookie: SP Jamie Moyer, Colorado. Okay, he may be 49 years old, but that arm must be good as new after surgery!
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
This team should be very good. Lots of young talent, headlined by the emerging star Justin Upton, who I expect to have a Matt Kemp-esque breakout season. The rotation of Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and Trevor Cahill will make this team the favorite in the West, though.
Key to success: 1B Paul Goldschmidt. The powerful first baseman could have the potential to crank well over 30 homers, and if he can do that, the lineup becomes much better
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (Wild Card)
I really like this Dodgers team. You would think a team with the Cy Young winner and the MVP runner up would be a lock for the playoffs. They have some holes but they should have enough to finish ahead of the Giants, who could struggle to score runs yet again.
Key to success: The four members of the rotation not named Clayton Kershaw. He can’t do it all himself.
3. San Francisco Giants
A team with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum will always have a chance to be successful. But the lineup remains a huge question besides Pablo Sandoval and the hopefully now injury-free Buster Posey. They won’t score enough runs to make a run at the Diamondbacks.
Key to success: Buster Posey’s health. If healthy, he could hit over .300 and drive in a lot of runs.
4. Colorado Rockies
As always, they have offensive weapons in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. They will score runs. But with former Orioles “ace” Jeremy Guthrie as their opening day starter and 49 year-old Jamie Moyer in the two-spot, their staff leaves a lot to be desired. Not until star prospects Drew Pomeranz and Alex White are ready to make an impact will this team be a real threat.
Key to success: Pitching, pitching, mo pitching. If they can find some consistent starters, they could move up the standings.
5. San Diego Padres
I could hardly tell you more than five players on this team. They are going to struggle to score runs. To be honest, I really don’t know much about them other than the fact that I don’t even know who is on the team, and that can’t bode well for their success.
Key to success: Kevin Brown, Ken Caminiti, and Greg Vaughn come back to lead the charge like its 1998 all over again.
National League Winner and Awards
NLCS: Arizona Diamondbacks over Miami Marlins
NL MVP: OF Justin Upton, Arizona
NL Cy Young: SP Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles
NL Rookie of the Year: OF Bryce Harper, Washington
WORLD SERIES
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim over Arizona Diamondbacks
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| Expect this guy to be a big reason why the Angels get back on top, 10 years after their last World Series |
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