Tuesday, February 28, 2012

The Wonderful, Wacky World That is The 2012 Orioles Bullpen

It seems year in and year out the Orioles throw a bunch of arms in the bullpen and hope someone sticks. Whether it's been big contracts to Danys Baez and Kevin Gregg, or previously successful pitchers like Mike DeJean and Steve Kline, a lack of homegrown talent has been fairly consistent in the O's pen. Up and coming power arm David Hernandez was traded last year for Mark Reynolds (a move I ironically approved of), and Jason Berken has struggled (more on that later). With the addition of myriad veteran relievers and journeymen, Dan Duquette has assembled what might end up being the most deadly arsenal in Triple A history.

Is Jim Johnson the Orioles closer entering 2012?
Taken from http://flavadave10mlb.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/jim-johnson.jpg



But that's beside the point. Last year's revolving carousel of bullpen arms for the Baltimore Orioles posted a 4.18 ERA a season ago, good for 27th in the majors and second to only Minnesota for the AL's worst.

They traded their best arm, RHP Koji Uehara, midseason for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter from the Texas Rangers. Some relievers performed well in small stints, LHP Zach Phillips, RHP Pedro Strop, and even much maligned LHP Mike Gonzalez strung together a few quality outings before being traded to Texas for Strop. The ace of the bullpen last year without question was homegrown RHP Jim Johnson, who pitched to a 2.67 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Kevin Gregg was removed from the closer's role after a fairly miserable stint. He tied his career high with 40 walks and had seven blown saves before Johnson took over. (Remember after all Buck doesn't care about the save rule, he likes the win rule a little better).

So, with all 2011 behind us and a new front office regime in place the 2012 Orioles bullpen will be notably different looking. Here's a quick rundown of all the arms in camp for the O's so you can see what we're dealing with. Of course, feel free to comment with your thoughts and opinions. I'll include every pitcher simply because there's a chance someone ends up being the 6th starter and is stashed in the bullpen/Buck's doghouse. I'm not including Dylan Bundy in the conversation for obvious reasons, his time will come.


Locks:

Jim Johnson
My favorite to win the closer's role after a pretty strong showing in September
Kevin Gregg
Owed $5,800,000 this year, he'll be a middle reliever and occasional fill in closer when Johnson needs rest
Matt Lindstrom
Another middle reliever with closing experience, I expect the occasional save from him and 50-60 appearances. Could end up being the club's setup man to get to JJ.
Pedro Strop
Loved what I saw from him last year, potential closer of the future with a nice fastball. working to confirm he is out of options which is what has been reported. 
Luis Ayala
While extremely unlikely he duplicates last season's numbers with the Yankees, another righty in the bullpen with a Major League contract. 

Likely:

Brad Bergesen
After KC's Billy Butler drilling and breaking his leg with a line drive, Bergy hasn't had quite the same success as his 2009 campaign. Nevertheless, I see him being effective as a longman/6th starter type that Buck can call on throughout the season to fill in for the younger arms should they struggle
Tsuyoshi Wada
Obviously making the team, only a matter of whether he's in the rotation or bullpen. As of this blog, he has been shut down indefinitely with elbow discomfort leading me to believe he won't be a starter and may in fact go on the 15 day DL, coming back as a reliever and going from there.
Troy Patton
One of the arms acquired in the Miguel Tejada trade a few years back, Patton has a real good shot of locking down a spot in middle to long relief as a southpaw. Pitched 30 innings last year with the O's and gave up 10 ERs. Do not believe he has any options left.
Alfredo Simon
Another starting candidate for the O's, I think he ends up in the bullpen and finds moderate success as a middle reliever. He's demonstrated in stretches the ability to overpower hitters (17 saves in 2010). After starting 16 games last year I'm sure he'll be in consideration for a spot start here or there but ideally settles in the pen.

On the bubble:

Zach Phillips
Along with Strop, one of the bright spots in the bullpen late last year. This lefty was near dominant in his brief stint, allowing one ER in 8 IP. Clearly a small sample size, I think he winds up in AAA and is called up at some point. He has options remaining which gives Patton the edge as of now.
Jason Berken
After a pretty impressive 2010 season, Berken was just off last year. Struggled out of the gate and was demoted not long after. Maybe he'll find what made him successful as a middle reliever in time, but after already sustaining a hamstring injury in camp I expect him to wind up on the DL or with Norfolk to start the year.
Darren O'Day
Sidewinding, funky right hander acquired from Texas. Definitely will see playing time with the Orioles this year, I just don't see him breaking camp with the team with so many other arms. Not very versatile (only pitched more than one inning once last year) and missed a lot of time due to a torn labrum in his hip.
Willie Eyre
Pitched to a 3.44 ERA in 19 games last season, another righty middle relief type for the O's. While not ineffective per se in 2011, I'm not sure he was impressive enough to come into this season with the team.


Norfolk/Minor League fodder:

Pat Neshek
The enigmatic righthander posted a 20/22 K to Walk ratio last year with San Diego. After a nice start to his career with the Twins he's really struggled and I fully expect him to begin the year in the minors.
Oliver Drake
Young right hander that spent time last year on Frederick, Bowie and Norfolk. Perhaps with some more AAA experience we'll be able to see him later this season with the O's.
Jon Link
Career minor leaguer that spent last year with the Dodgers organization. More organizational depth that could see a call-up sometime this year.
Miguel Socolovich
After looking up some info on him, this is a guy who's actually somewhat intriguing. I'd imagine he'll work in Norfolk for a bit. Over the past two seasons he's spent in AAA ball he's had some issues with walks and a high WHIP accordingly, but also posted an 11.3 K/9 rate. Keep an eye on him.
Oscar Villarreal
Hasn't pitched in the majors since 2008 and spent time with the Mexican league last year. More depth to be called upon once the starters inevitably pitch 6 innings a start and burn out the bullpen.
Dennys Reyes
Could the Orioles be his 12th major league team? The Ruben Sierra of pitchers is having visa problems and may not be able to report to camp. If he does, potential LOOGY at some point.

Alright. So who's left? By process of elimination I have Chris TillmanJake ArrietaZach BrittonBrian Matusz, Dana Eveland, Wei-Ying Chen, Tommy Hunter, Jason Hammel and Jim Joyce's archenemy (just kidding) Armando Galarraga. That's NINE candidates right there for the rotation and long relief role. DD has stockpiled arms and it's not a bad thing by any means. Maybe Hunter winds up in the long man role in the pen and maybe he's the Orioles opening day starter. At this point it's all speculation because nothing has been guaranteed for any of them.


So there you have it, a slew of arms that are all competing for those coveted bullpen spots. I think the bullpen has a real shot of being a strength on this team, but the starters NEED to compile innings and consistently go 6-7 every time out or the pen will get burned out before the All-Star break.


Again, feel free to comment on what you think the Orioles will end up doing with their roster in the coming weeks. It's certainly a storyline to follow as the young guns (hopefully) improve on last year and display more of their potential.


-MVP

4 comments:

  1. First off...how difficult was it to type that Kevin Gregg is owed $5.8M? Anyway, I like Strop and he certainly looked good last year but he has a history of losing the strike zone so we'll see if that crops up in a larger sample size. I also liked what I saw out of Zach Phillips, but I think he'll get squeezed out of the roster due to the numbers crunch. Lindstrom could be an interesting trade chip but he has a history of issues pitching late in the game. Ayala, as you said, should regress quite a bit. I similarly see Wada breaking camp as a reliever but I think Wada was under the impression that he'd be a starter, so we'll see how that goes over. I beg of anyone that will listen that we see as little Brad Bergesen as possible this year. I'm sure he's a wonderful guy and all but he can't miss a bat to save his life.

    One thing to keep an eye on is the velocity coming out of the 'pen. Strop, Johnson, Lindstrom, Simon all throw mid to upper 90s heat. So there's that.

    Small nitpick, but between your locks and guys that are likely, you have nine arms. Nine-men bullpens can happen once the rosters expand in September, but bullpens generally can't really go beyond 7-8 arms before then. 25-man rosters generally have the eight starting spots, five rotation spots, 7-8 bullpen spots and 4-5 bench spots. Nine 'pen arms leaves you with three bench spots, one of which is a catcher, leaving the manager only two guys to pinch hit, pinch run and fill in for an injury.

    Keep up the good work boys,

    -Luke

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    1. Funny you mentioned that in regards to the numbers game, I was struggling quite a bit trying to guess how many Buck would keep in the bullpen and looked back over the past few years to see what he/other O's managers have gone with. All in all, probably too many arms listed as you said, but thats why they're "likely" and not locks. Appreciate you reading and taking the time to comment. Love the idea of having some guys in the pen with gas for a change too.

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  2. I think that the potential for guys in our Bullpen to pitch spot starts and go 5 or 6 solid innings (similar to Simon last year) will be crucial for any sort of success for the O's this year. I do really like what DD is doing as far as the competitive element to pitching in house, hopefully driving up performance of everyone. I'd love to see an article by you guys on the future state of the Orioles. Considering Manny and Dylan in the fold as well as taking current assets and possibly maximizing prospects and potential.

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    1. Brandon I'm optimistic that the Orioles have a few guys capable of putting together a borderline quality start on a whim. Eveland, Wada, Simon and Bergesen all have the potential (and with the exception of Wada) have done so at one point or another. There's no question that whatever five starters break camp will not remain intact 100% throughout the season. I really do think the middle relief and setup/closer roles can be effective this season but they cannot get overused early. Thanks for reading!

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