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| Did Mark Reynolds add some late-season fuel to keep the Orioles' fire burning in September? (Photo credit: Baltimore Sun, 8/17) |
I remember 2002 very fondly. I remember watching Travis Driskill get his major league callup. I remember Tony Batista launching bombs with his quirky stance. But most of all, I remember 4-32. Mike Hargrove managing and steering a ship with no rudder. The team miraciously was 63-63 before the collapse(!). That right there should have garnered Grover some MOY votes, the team was awful. Worse, way worse, than this current team trotted out everynight by Buck Showalter.
Let's flash forward to the present. I still sense the apprehension, the genuine doubt fans have in this Orioles team. I feel it too, don't get me wrong, much has been made of lately that the Orioles run differential is a paltry negative 46, in the same company as the 52-66 Kansas City Royals and the 54-65 Philadelphia Phillies. The adjusted W/L total for the Orioles accounting for their run differential? 55-64, according to baseballreference.com's Pythagorean formula.
Unfortunately, there's no formula for analyzing the atmposphere at the ballpark. I was at the game last Tuesday when Mark Reynolds hit two home runs and the Red Sox were roughed up pretty darn good. The last time I was at a Red Sox/Orioles game at OPACY? "LET'S GO RED SOX" chants and constant screams of joy each time a BoSock reached base, recorded an out and of course, when they eventually won. This time, there was very little of that. The crowd was a decent 26k draw, but what got my attention was the overwhelmingly pro-Orioles theme that reviberated around the stadium. Fans on their feet screaming for Reynolds when he did his Sosa-esque home run jump, oohing and ahhing at Manny Machado making plays at third base that Brooksie would nod his head in approval at. I left that game with a legitimate sense that things are turning around in Baltimore. What could be a better barometer than a Red Sox game in mid August?
This all brings me back to the genesis of this piece. What proof do Orioles fans have that this run will continue into Sepetmber when it matters most? When they win it's by the narrowest of margins, 40 of their 64 wins have come by one or two runs. Yes, their bullpen has a 3.01 ERA, 3rd best in the AL. Their starters though? 9th in the AL with a 4.68 ERA. The inconsistencies of the "calvary" include the likes of Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta - both relegated to AAA. Zach Britton has battled a shoulder injury and has been largely ineffective in his 2012 season between Norfolk and Baltimore. Chris Tillman has been the brightest spot but even he has had a few rough patches in his big league stint thus far. The hitting is an enigma in every sense of the word. JJ Hardy has had multiple stretches of downright stink (.200 OBP in June(!!)). Mark Reynolds has been stinky all year, to be polite. Including this recent stretch of hot play his average again remains teetering just above the Mendoza line, but the problem truly lies with the 12 home runs.
So maybe there is no hope for the Birds and the last month and a half will be a screeching regression to the mean. Maybe the starting pitching will completely collapse, Jason Hammel's knee stays balky and the bullpen's run ends because of the grueling season length. 4-32 happened once, I suppose it could happen again.
Or this could happen. Hardy progresses to the mean for his average on balls hit in play. Remember what I just said about his awful stretches this season? June and July he hit .193 and .184 respectfully. His batting average on balls in play those two months? Almost identical, .208 and .207. For his career? .274. And for Reynolds, there is a proven track record with his power production. He has hit below 20 HRs once in a major league season, his rookie year when he played 111 games. There can be any number of factors as to why his season has been a disappointment, but in his career it's worth noting the month that he has hit the most home runs -- August.
Taking a step back and looking at this season is a real treat to Orioles and baseball fans alike. This is a cinderella story, not in the sense of March Madness where a team can catch fire for a few games. The Orioles have battled through peaks and valleys, injuries and ineffectiveness. No different than any other team really (well maybe different than the Astros, who really never "peaked, but I digress). The difference between this team and the previous 14 Orioles teams is hard to pinpoint. 2004 and 2005 had some talent but also some serious clubhouse issues. Maybe this team is succeeding because there are no cancers in the clubhouse as Reynolds said a few days ago. Maybe Buck really does know what he is doing, pressing the right buttons like keeping Hardy batting in the two hole despite his subpar season. Maybe Dan Duquette isn't the bumbling baffoon many made him out to be when he was hired after the Orioles were spurned by just about everyone else they reached out to.
There's no rational explanation as to why the Orioles are where they are, which is smack dab in the middle of the playoff race and in possession of a wildcard spot. With leaders on the team like Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters the team has a young and hungry core. Reynolds' passionate outburst and subsequent comments about the umpiring last night in Detroit may be the best indicator any of us have as to why this team is winning. They haven't mailed it in. They never did. Somehow, when pundits across the nation predicted 58-70 wins for the Orioles, the players didn't listen. Neither did Duquette, who declared 'We are going to do whatever we can to make the playoffs' --back in June!
That's fine though by me. There doesn't have to be a statistic to back up every win. Yes it's fun to analyze and measure every tangible attribute related to the team, but at the end of the day the Orioles are winning because of the intangibles. And those can't, no matter how hard you try, be measured. Sit back, enjoy the ride, go out to the ballpark and watch the Orioles continue their run. You've waited 14 years for this.
