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| The beautiful sight of pitchers and catchers warming up on the first day of Spring Training |
Pitchers and catchers reported to Sarasota yesterday
for the official start of Orioles’ spring training. It’s finally here. Time for
that unfounded hope that maybe, just maybe, this is the year that the pieces
start to come together; that the young pitchers hit their stride while the
veterans on the staff bring stability. Baltimore fans have for years been
hoping for “the cavalry,” as they have been colloquially called, to make it to
the big leagues and become studs. The cavalry of the last few years roughly
includes Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Zach Britton, and Jake Arietta; a group
that was highly touted not just within the organization, but around the league.
Their success has come in spurts, intertwined with injuries, demotions to the
minors, and inconsistent results. It has been the inability of the young core
of pitchers to truly emerge, combined with the lack of a true veteran ace that
has made the Orioles’ starting rotation the weakest link of an anemically bad
team for the past 14 years. The team comes into 2012 without their “ace” of the
past few seasons in Jeremy Guthrie, who was traded to the Rockies, and a lack
of a sense of who will make up the starting rotation come Opening Day. I’m
going to take a look at all of the candidates who will be in Spring Training
and will have a chance to make the rotation and assess their chances of doing
so:
Last week, I would have told you that Britton had
the best chance of being the only “lock” to be in the starting rotation from
the start of spring training and that he would probably be the Opening Day
starter. Now, I’m worried he will be following a 2011 Brian Matusz-type track. Wednesday
morning, Jim Duquette, the former O’s VP of operations and cousin of current GM
Dan Duquette, tweeted that Britton is steal dealing with some shoulder weakness
and discomfort and that he will be limited in camp. Great. A week after trading
the only sure thing in the rotation in Jeremy Guthrie, the main, healthy young
arm expected to carry the load this season could very well start the year on
the DL. If healthy, I would expect Britton to be the main guy on the rotation
and improve his numbers over last year. He’s only 24 and is going to continue
to get better. But now, until more is known about this injury, your guess is as
good as mine about the type of season Britton will have.
Chances of making rotation: Unknown
Projected stats (if healthy): 13-10, 180 IP, 4.10
ERA, 130 K’s
Arrieta would have ideally formed the right-handed
component of the young, dynamic and ever-improving double headed monster of
Britton and Arrieta at the top of the O’s rotation for years to come. But he
had his successful, yet inconsistent, 2011 season cut short to have bone spurs
removed from his throwing elbow. Indications point to him being ready to go for
the start of the season, but no one can be 100% sure. All it takes is for him
to push himself a little too much in spring training and he could be dealing
with inflammation and pain again. If healthy, I would look for Arietta to
possibly make a bigger improvement than a healthy Britton. Getting the bone
spurs removed should remove all discomfort and allow for greater arm strength.
The biggest improvement I believe we will see from Jake is his improved command.
He became notorious for 5 inning starts due to high walk and pitch count
totals. With less discomfort and a stronger arm, look for that command to
increase and Arrieta to be one of the pleasant surprises on this team.
Chances of making rotation: 90% (10% chance injuries
still linger)
Projected stats: 14-11, 175 IP, 3.90 ERA, 150 K’s
Who knows what to expect here? A shaky start to
2010 was followed by a Cy Young-esque final two months of the season after Buck
Showalter took over as manager. Great expectations surrounded the young lefty
stud heading into 2011, only for him to miss two months with an intercostal strain
and subsequently finishing 1-9 with a 10.69 ERA, the highest ERA ever for a
pitcher who made at least 10 starts in a season. Now, the one-time future ace has
to re-establish himself as a major league level pitcher. He suffered from
dramatic velocity dips last year, even after he claimed he was “healthy.” Some
blame the lack of velocity on former pitching coach Mark Connor’s tinkering
with his mechanics, others say he just doesn’t have it anymore. Either way, he
is still 25 and has a long way to go before he is a “bust.” While I don’t think
he will make the rotation out of spring training, look for a mid-season call up
and some mild success the rest of the way.
Chances of making rotation: 20% (needs to be VERY
impressive in ST)
Projected stats: 4-6, 75 IP, 4.50 ERA, 50 K’s
The fourth and youngest member of the “cavalry,”
he has perhaps been the most enigmatic of the group, with Matusz’s
injury-riddled 2011 aside. Acquired in the Erik Bedard haul from Seattle which
also included Adam Jones and George Sherrill, Tillman was the piece that was
supposed to make this trade an absolute robbery for the Orioles. Instead,
Tillman’s high strikeout totals and overall success in the minors has yet to
translate to consistent success in the majors. He has compiled a respectable
3.88 ERA in his minor league career, but his strikeout rate of 8.83 per nine
innings has only translated into a 5.78 K/9 with the O’s. Aside from command
issues, one issue that can be easily fixed for him is the opportunity to
succeed. He has been shuttled between Baltimore and Norfolk way too many times
for him to develop any type of consistency in the majors. He would have a solid
6 inning start followed by a short outing and then would be immediately shipped
to Norfolk. With the health of Britton and Arrieta up in the air, this could be
Tillman’s shot to seize a spot and prove the doubters wrong. Don’t forget, he
will only be 24 in April, so he is far from being a bust.
Chances of making rotation: 40% (higher with
Britton/Arrieta possibly being hurt)
Projected stats: 7-8, 110 IP, 4.40 ERA, 70 K’s
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| The Cavalry, circa 2009. Troy Patton, Brian Matusz, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen |
Acquired in the midseason trade with the Rangers
along with Chris Davis for reliever Koji Uehara, Hunter stepped right into the
rotation for the remainder of the season, showing flashes of dominance
sprinkled with lack of control and a homer-friendly fastball. At this point in
the Spring of 2012, though, I would consider Hunter about as close of a lock to
make the rotation as anyone on this list. He is still young (25) but has a few
years of experience under his belt with the Rangers and has proved that he can
get major league hitters out, something that the Orioles should not take for
granted. I see Hunter getting 30 starts with the club as he gets a real chance
to prove that he can pitch at the big league level.
Chances of making rotation: 99%
Projected stats: 11-11 190 IP, 3.90 ERA, 110 K’s
Simon has certainly had a roller-coaster tenure
with the Orioles. After a cup of tea in September 2008 with the club, he made
the rotation in 2009 out of Spring Training, only to make two starts and have
his season cut short by Tommy John surgery. In 2010, he was a late April
call-up for bullpen help, only to eventually take over the closer roll, where
he was inconsistent but showed flashes of his sometimes nasty repertoire. 2011
saw him both come out of the bullpen and start games, where he strung together
several decent starts in the middle of the season. This year, his chances of
making the team are pretty high, but in what role remains the question. I see
him vying for a back-of-the-rotation spot, but probably fits better on this
team as a long reliever/middle innings guy. He will probably end up with 10-15
starts and over 100 IP yet again as a valuable innings eater in many roles.
Chances of making rotation: 30%, making at least
bullpen: 95%
The Orioles prized acquisition of the 2011 Winter
Meetings comes in the package of the one and only Dana Eveland. A symbol of
what has become the Orioles’ seemingly inactive approach at the annual meetings
in December, Eveland is a career journeyman who Dan Duquette sees as a
legitimate option to throw in the rotation competition. To be honest, I have
never seen him pitch, but I can tell you that he is not the type of pitcher we
should be excited about giving a chance to start games. In reality, he may end
up being an “inventory” arm that gets stored at Norfolk in case of injury, but
that is where he belongs. He has a chance to make the team, but only because of
the complete disarray of the rest of the staff.
Chances of making rotation: 10%, chances of making
bullpen: 25%
Projected stats: 2-3 45 IP, 4.90 ERA, 25 K’s
Hammel was part of the two player haul the Orioles
got from the Rockies for the only sure thing on the staff in Jeremy Guthrie.
This was another head scratcher for me, as he is in his 30’s and has never been
anything more than a serviceable back-end starter. I also do not know much
about his approach, stuff, etc., but I do see him having more of a shot at the
rotation than Eveland. Hammel supposedly has a power arm and has decent
experience, making him more viable than half of these names right off the bat.
I struggle to see where he fits in the long term plans and is probably also
another inventory arm. Was it worth giving up 200 IP and veteran leadership in
Gurthie, that remains to be seen.
Chances of making rotation: 70%
Projected stats: 8-10, 150 IP, 4.60 ERA, 90 K’s
I’m going to group the Orioles’ two Asian market
signings this offseason in one post, as I know about next to nothing about what
to expect from them. Wada comes with more hype and expectations than Chen. A
lefty with pretty high strikeout totals, Wada is being paid like a starting
pitcher and probably would have to have an awful Spring Training to be
relegated to the bullpen. Chen, also a
lefty who has put up some impressive numbers in the Japanese league, is younger
than Wada and would probably be more likely to come out of the bullpen right
away, but could have the higher upside. Dan Duquette said he thinks international scouting and development is one
of the major areas the Orioles’ will look to tap into and improve, and this is
the start of that process. O’s fans got a taste of the Asian-style of pitching
with former fan favorite Koji Uehara, so hopefully these two can live up to
that reputation.
Chances of making rotation: Wada: 95%, Chen, 75%
Projected stats: Something between Kei Igawa and Daisuke
Matsuzaka-type numbers
I’ll keep this blurb short, as I don’t see
Galarraga making the team, but rather joining Eveland in Norfolk to start the
season as two veteran inventory arms. Famous for having his perfect game taken
away from him two years ago, Galarraga doesn’t have the velocity or “stuff” to
really stick at the major league level for more than a spot start.
Chances of making rotation: 10%
Projected stats: 1-3, 40 IP, 4.80 ERA, 20 K’s
Others that I didn’t include: Brad Bergesen, Jason
Berken, Jim Johnson, Dylan Bundy, the entire Maryland Terrapins staff, Scott Erickson, Jason
Johnson, and Omar Daal
My final projected starting rotation:
Jake Arrieta (Opening Day)
Tommy Hunter
Jason Hammel
Tsuyoshi Wada
Wei-Yin Chen
Bullpen: Alfredo Simon
DL: Zach Britton
AAA: Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman (I think he should be in the majors but won't be given a fair chance), Dana Eveland, Armando Galarraga
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| It could be some time before the next Mike Mussina takes the mound at Camden Yards |
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