2013 AL East Predictions

American League East

Expect Jose Reyes to be scoring very often batting at the top of the revamped Blue Jays  lineup

1. Toronto Blue Jays

Key Acquisitions:
SS Jose Reyes, OF Melky Cabrera, IF Emilio Bonifacio, SP Mark Buehrle, SP Josh Johnson, SP R.A. Dickey

Key Losses:

No team will put out such a drastically different opening day lineup than the Blue Jays. The blockbuster trade with the Marlins in which they acquired Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson, as well as trading for 2012 NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey and signing Melky Cabrera have made the Blue Jays the trendy pick to leap the standings in the East and capture their first division title since 1993. 

Why they will win the East: The new three headed monster of Dickey, Buehrle and Johnson will form a top of the rotation that will reek of the Phillies, circa 2011. Also, Melky Cabrera's bounce back from steroid suspension and the growth of Brett Lawrie will be important for the offense. 

Why they will flop: Dickey struggles in transitioning to the American League, Mark Buehrle shows he can't get people out with an 84 MPH fastball, Melky Cabrera returns to his pre-PED days and Edwin Encarnacion proves his breakout 2012 was a statistical outlier. 

Projected Lineup:

SS Jose Reyes

LF Melky Cabrera

RF Jose Bautista

1B Edwin Encarnacion

DH Adam Lind

3B Brett Lawrie

CF Colby Rasmus

C JP Arencibia

2B Maicer Izturis/Emilio Bonifacio

Projected Rotation:

RA Dickey

Mark Buehrle

Josh Johnson

Brandon Morrow

Ricky Romero

2. Baltimore Orioles (Wild Card)

Key Acquisitions: SP Jair Jurrjens, OF Trayvon Robinson, IF Alexi Casilla, 1B/OF Conor Jackson, IF Danny Valencia

Key Losses: 1B Mark Reynolds, SP Joe Saunders, IF Robert Andino

Baseball is back in the Charm City. The surprise wild card playoff appearance has increased expectations in Baltimore in 2013. But no major acquisitions were made and the team lost Mark "The Sheriff" Reynolds and dependable veteran starter Joe Saunders. But the team returns an under-the-radar lineup headlined by Adam Jones and Chris Davis, with the (hopefully) healthy return of Brian Roberts, Nolan Reimold and Wilson Betemit. With the playoff experience under their belts and many of their players in their prime, expect a similar performance as last year.

Why they will make it back to the playoffs: Pitching. The lineup has some questions with Roberts and Reimold and whether or not Nate McLouth and Chris Davis can replicate 2012, but the questions in the rotation are greatest. There is a surplus of solid young arms, but is there really an "ace"? If the younger corps of Chris Tillman, Steve Johnson, Zach Britton, and Jake Arrieta can hold up the back of the rotation, they will be fine. If not, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman are waiting in the wings. 

Why they will be back in the cellar: There may not be a 100% sure thing in the rotation. Wei-Yin Chen could have his sophomore slump, Jason Hammel could look like he's back in Tampa Bay, Miguel Gonzalez may need to head back to the Mexican League. If the youngsters behind them can't take the next step, things may spiral out of hand quickly. 

Projected Lineup:

LF Nate McLouth
DH Nolan Reimold
RF Nick Markakis
CF Adam Jones
C Matt Wieters
1B Chris Davis
SS JJ Hardy
3B Manny Machado
2B Brian Roberts

Rotation:

Jason Hammel

Wei-Yin Chen

Miguel Gonzalez

Chris Tillman

Jake Arrieta

Bullpen:

Tommy Hunter

TJ McFarland
Brian Matusz

Luis Ayala

Troy Patton

Darren O'Day

Pedro Strop

Jim Johnson

3. Tampa Bay Rays

Key Acquisitions: 1B James Loney, SS Yunel Escobar, OF Wil Myers (Top prospect from KC)

Key Losses: OF BJ Upton, SP James Shields, SP Wade Davis

Tampa Bay has managed to maintain sustained success since their surprising run to the World Series in 2008, with a few division titles and wild card appearances scattered over five years. They fell just short of catching the Orioles in 2012, and will lose BJ Upton and pitchers James Shield and Wade Davis from that team. Young stars are still in town with stud 3B Evan Longoria, OF Desmond Jennings and uber-prospect OF Wil Myers waiting in Triple-A for the first month of the season.

Why they will return to the playoffs: They will get proven production from guys like Longoria, but they will need veterans Luke Scott, Yunel Escobar and James Loney to step up at the bottom end of the lineup. Otherwise, they will struggle to score runs. Their starting pitching will carry them, as they are one of the top five rotations in baseball.

Why they will miss out on October: An anemic offense. The pitching will be there, but the lineup could be very prone to low-power production and inconsistent play, something that doesn't place a lot of confidence in this team's long term potential.

Projected Lineup:

CF Desmond Jennings

RF Ben Zobrist

3B Evan Longoria

LF Matt Joyce

SS Yunel Escobar

DH Luke Scott

2B Ryan Roberts

1B James Loney

C Jose Molina

Projected Rotation:

David Price

Jeremy Hellickson

Matt Moore

Jeff Niemann

Alex Cobb

4. Boston Red Sox

Key Acquisitions: OF Shane Victorino, 1B/C Mike Napoli, SS Stephen Drew, OF Jonny Gomes, SP Ryan Dempster, RP Koji Uehara, RP Joel Hanrahan

Key Losses: SP Aaron Cook, 1B James Loney, SP Daisuke Matsuzaka, RP Vicente Padilla, OF Cody Ross

Fans in Boston must have been very happy to leave 2012 behind. The one year disaster that was the Bobby Valentine experience is over and in comes former bench coach John Farrell. Reports say the team is more loose and is having fun, something that did not happen last year. They finished in last place in 2012, but with some healthy veterans, they could climb back up into contention.

Why they will make the playoffs: A healthy roster. If Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz can stay healthy, the lineup will have one of the better top third of any team in baseball. Their starting rotation must also rebound from a horrendous 2012 season.

Why they will miss the playoffs: The pitching staff fails to stay healthy and shows their age. Jon Lester had a terrible 2012, John Lackey is returning from injury and Ryan Dempster is past his prime. Once steady, consistent forces, there are now question marks surrounding all three.

Projected Lineup:

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

RF Shane Victorino

2B Dustin Pedroia

DH David Ortiz

3B Will Middlebrooks

1B Mike Napoli

LF Jonny Gomes

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia

SS Stephen Drew

Projected Rotation

Jon Lester

Clay Buchholz

Ryan Dempster

John Lackey

Felix Doubront

5. New York Yankees

Key Acquisitions: IF Kevin Youkilis, DH Travis Hafner, 1B Dan Johnson

Key Losses: 3B Eric Chavez, RP Rafael Soriano, OF Nick Swisher, OF Raul Ibanez, RP Freddy Garcia

Yes, I am picking the Yankees to finish last. This team may finally be too old (and injured) to continue winning American League East titles. A-Rod, Curtis Granderson, and Mark Teixeira will start the season on the DL. Derek Jeter, Kevin Youkilis, Ichiro Suzuki and Travis Hafner are all well past their respective primes. And their pitching staff is relying on the 38-year old Hiroki Kuroda, 40-year old Andy Pettitte and the 43-year old Mariano Rivera. General Manager Brian Cashman confirmed that they have contacted the unofficially retired Derrek Lee and Scott Rolen. Yikes. Is there talent here? Of course. This team would have won 120 games...if it were 2006. 

Why they will win the East again: I don't see it happening, but they will have to squeeze out above-average years from all of the guys listed above. And stay healthy. Bad knees and hips are waiting for about half of their roster. 

Why they will fall short: Age and injuries. Easy enough. 

Projected Lineup:

CF Brett Gardner
RF Ichiro Suzuki
2B Robinson Cano
3B Kevin Youkilis
DH Travis Hafner
LF Vernon Wells/Brennan Boesch
1B Lyle Overbay
SS Eduardo Nunez
C Chris Stewart

DL: Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Phil Hughes

Projected Rotation:

CC Sabathia

Hiroki Kuroda
Andy Pettitte

Ivan Nova

Phil Hughes